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Project Details

Current project:

Space-for-time substitution across temporal scales

Duration:

16.03.2019-31.12.2021

Problem statement

Contemporary spatial patterns of biodiversity are often used in ecology to predict future temporal changes in diversity. This method assumes that the drivers of community turnover in space are the same as those that drive turnover through time. Palaeontological data has been used to test this assumption, but at a single temporal scale (Blois et al. 2013). Here we use time series of planktonic foraminifera assemblages ranging from decades to multi-millennia to test empirically at which temporal scales space can substitute time. We fitted generalised dissimilarity models to contemporary coretop data (see Results section below), and will use these models to predict community turnover through time based on local temperature time-series (alkenone data).

Hypothesis

We expect that longer time scales (deglaciation, ice-ages) are more predictable by contemporary spatial variation than shorter time scales (years to decades). At shorter time scales, stochastic processes and dispersal limitation decouple the relationship between planktonic foraminifera assemblage composition and temperature, but time-averaging reduces these effects at longer time scales.

Working Area

Our results will show whether the space-for-time substitution is valid at temporal scales commonly used in ecological and conservation research.


Results

Manuscript in preparation:

Linear and non-linear relationships between species turnover, environmental variables and fossil preservation in planktonic foraminifera

Abstract

Planktonic foraminifera are marine unicellular eukaryotes that have a world-wide distribution and are central to palaeoclimate reconstructions. Despite their importance, global bioregions based on their species composition have not been quantified, and non-linear relationships between species turnover and multiple environmental predictors have not been explored. Here, we use a recently-compiled global dataset of species composition in 3,796 marine surface sediments to (i) quantify planktonic foraminifera bioregions based on clustering methods, and (ii) model the linear and non-linear predictors of their spatial turnover using Bayesian Bootstrap Generalised Dissimilarity Models. We found four global planktonic foraminifera bioregions, confirming the bi-hemispheric distribution of cold-water species, but showing that these bioregions have different extents across the oceans. Sea-surface temperature (SST) is the main predictor of species turnover globally and within oceans. The SST-turnover relationship is mostly linear, but the rate of turnover decelerates in warm waters, suggesting that the SST signal in planktonic foraminifera composition becomes weaker in the tropics. Water depth emerges as an important, non-linear predictor of species composition in the Pacific and Indian ocean. Thus, in these oceans, biogeographical patterns in seafloor sediments are affected by fossil preservation. Other environmental variables such as net primary productivity and salinity affect species turnover non-linearly and differently among oceans. Together, our results show how the change in species composition can have different predictors and shapes across the world oceans.

Figure: planktonic foraminifera bioregions based on similarity of assemblage composition.

Image Added


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